Temperatures down to the single digits at night earlier in the week put some frost in the ground. Based on weather forecasts, no snow, with light rain and temperatures above freezing through Christmas Day.

King Pine has man-made snow in the clubhouse area and expects to produce some coverage in remaining areas by end of the week.

The lake level remains above the plan of 405′ by this time of year because of the heavy rain (about 2″) from 12/6 – 12/9.  Level was down to 407′ before the rain and then went up to a little over 408′ two days later.

No other big news to report from this corner of Freedom Land.

Lake level was down below 406′ by November 30th, and then we had a strong rainstorm that evening. It melted Wednesday’s snow and raised the lake 1.5′ in three days. Plan for this time of year is 405.5′ for December 1st and 404.5′ by end of the month.

Looking back over records of the last few years there has almost always been ice on Broad Bay by this time of the year. Water levels have been:

- The 2008 level was 407.9′ with full ice cover
- The 2009 level was 408.0′ with skin ice (couldn’t  do test bores at the dam until January)
- The 2010 level was 407.8′ with no ice

As for activities in Freedom, holiday decorations are being set up. The month is filling with concerts and other events. We had the first planning meeting for the 2012 Old Home Week in Freedom. Ducky race will be June 30th. Parade and cardboard boat race on August 4th and other events from August 3 – 12.

Work on the Mill Pond firehouse has been completed, and work continues on the Village Road Fire House/Police Station with completion in January.

I am almost ready for my “Long Winter’s Nap”!

The water level was down to 407.25′ on 10/1 and one south-side gate was opened plus a layer of north-side stop logs was removed in anticipation of rain later that week.  The rain came and by 10/4 water level was up to 408.8′ – almost 1.5 ft. in 4 days.

With no rain and a flow equal to all five south-side gates being open, the level came down to summer plan in seven days (10/11). Four days later the level was down to 406.55′ and it looked like we were on schedule for the winter drawdown scheduled to start 10/10.

More rain was predicted for the 14th (and we got it) so all gates were opened and it looks like all stop logs were removed on the 13th. Net result is that lake level went up 1.2 ft. to 407.73′ by last evening in a time span of less than three days.

Prediction is for dry weather until Wednesday, and then more rain for a day – no idea how much. There is no way short of an earthquake to drain more water out of the lake, so we will ride the ups and downs until ______ freezes over in December.

As of Monday evening the official lake level (on the big lake) is 409.25 – 2 ft. over summer level. All indications are for increased elevation during the next day or two. There is a good chance of 410 ft. or higher. Based on flow rates I believe the dam continues to be wide open.

Some history of where the reported level has been:

8/25 – Thursday – 5 p.m. – 407.25′ – normal summer level
8/28 – Sunday – 6 a.m. – 406.3′ – lowest level before the storm (61 hours to bring the level down by using  a managed opening of the dam to avoid navigation problems if the rain did not come as predicted.)
8/29 – Sunday – 1 a.m. – 407.25′ – back to summer level in 19 hours with the dam wide open
8/29 – Sunday – 7 a.m. – 408.25′ – Up one foot in 6 hours
8/29 – Sunday – 9 p.m. – 409.25 – Up another foot in 14 hours

Inflow from the Bearcamp reached 5,421 cfs 8 p.m. on Sunday. This is about as high as I remember in the last ten years. The flow droped to 1,345 Monday evening but is high enough to continue raising the lake.

Looks like the estimate of one foot increase in lake level for each inch of widespread rain is going to hold true for this storm.

At noon yesterday (Thursday) the lake level was 407.2′ and on the way down from a level near 407.5′ two days earlier. One south side gate is open with a value of 250 cfs (cubic feet per second) and almost 3 layers of stop logs are out on the north side. I counted 38 logs chain locked to the catwalk. Discharge over the top on the north side is estimated at 450 cfs noon yesterday.

Later today the four remaining gates will be opened and result in an increased flow of 1,000 cfs. If on Saturday morning the prediction for heavy rain continues, the remaining 1.5 layers of stop logs will be removed. By that time the lake level should be down 6-10 inches below summer level.

Dan will be watching conditions on Saturday and Sunday. If the rain comes, there is nothing more that can be done to prevent a flood. If the rain does not come, some of the boat ramps and shallow places will be dry. If there is little or no rain, Dan will have all gates on the south side closed and then work on replacing the north side stop logs.

The plan is to have the lake level back to 407.25 as soon as possible and hold at that level until the scheduled winter drawdown starts on October 10th.

NOTE:  In previous years it has been observed that one inch of widespread rain can raise the lake level one foot in a day or two.

Ice covers about half of lower Danforth, the Purity Springs lakes and some ponds. Official “Ice Out” for Winnipesaukee was 8:20 am on Tuesday. Last of the ice on North Broad Bay melted late Monday. This is within the normal date range of April 16–26.

Water level in Ossipee hit an early season high of 408.1 on 3/21 then decreased to 406.5′ by early April. It remained below the summer level of 407.25′ until April 11th. But within a four-day period it rose three feet to 410.2′ on the 15th. After a few cool, dry days the level went down to 409.7′ on the 17th and then back up to a high of 410.9′ last Monday morning.

Level is on the way down and may drop to 410′ by Easter Sunday. This would be a good time to take some photos of where the 410′ level intersects your property.

Both sides of the dam have been wide open since last fall so there is no way to increase the outflow rate and no way to control the inflow rate. The only good news is that the frost is out of the ground in most areas so some of the melt water and rain is going into the ground. If the ground had been frozen last week the lake level would have gone over 411′.

April high water is not unusual: On 04/09/09 the level was 410.4′ and remained high most of the summer. On 04/01/10 the level was 411.5′ but returned to the plan level of 407.25′ for the summer.

I expect to have the docks and one boat in by early May.

The level decreased a few inches earlier this week but is on the rise again because of the warm weather and significant snow melt.  There was some rain to the south of us but we had snow.  Ice continues to cover the lake and bays.

The following are some illustrations of how fast the lake level can change:

Looking down to my dock and driving the area at that time I guessed the level was more like 406.5 or lower. We had a hard freeze around that time, followed by North Broad Bay and the Danforths icing over, then lots of rain.

The lake level graph is back online but is still not accurate. On Broad Bay I estimate the level today is less than 407′. The bay is ice covered and as the level goes down the ice sheet on the shore drops to an angle that defies walking out onto thin ice.

Had it not been for the rain 8 days ago the level could be down another 8 – 10”. In two days that rain replaced all of the water that was let out with the dam opening starting back before Columbus Day.

Per my email exchange with the State Dam Bureau two days ago, they plan to continue drawing down the level per the schedule agreed to at the Ossipee Lake Dam Authority meeting in the spring 2005. That schedule has the level at 406.5’ by November. (Note that the level is two inches below this plan as of this morning.)  Level should be at  405.5’ by December and 404.5’ (winter low) by January. The stop logs on the north side will come out when the level is down to the 405’ spillway height.

This is the plan, but Mother Nature can send the area enough rain in a few days to keep the level up and, like last year, give us a flood up to 407.9’ on December 6th. All of the gates were open but the rain and snow kept coming.

I visited the dam last Thursday morning and was surprised to see all of the heavy lifting equipment and work crew at the south side (Head Works) dam. The crew had been there for several days and was just completing replacement of boards in the five adjustable gates. This was done because in the spring of 2010 the dam operator noticed serious deterioration in one of the gates. The condition was judged to be good enough to get through one more summer.

Replacing this gate is a big job. The roof must be taken off the building and a large crane brought in to lift the gate completely out of the building and down to a place where the old wood can be removed and new wood installed. The new gate is put back in place and the internal lifting mechanism hooked up. (They run it with a big electric drill motor).

With the roof off, the building and the very large equipment in place it was decided to replace the remaining gates. This needs to be a fast job because water is flowing through the opening when the gate is out for repair. When I got there everything was back in place and the roof was almost complete. Three shiny new gates are in the open position. There is now room inside the gate house for winter storage of stop logs from the north side.

When the water level is below the north side spillway later this year, some deteriorating concrete will be repaired – if Mother Nature cooperates.

The level decreased gradually to about the summer level of 407.25′ and has remained within a few inches of the mark all summer. No big rainstorms or surges in the lake level.

Weather has been warm but only moderate use of the lake on Broad Bay. I counted only two bass fishing derbies this summer.

Starting in early August the level dropped to 407′ with the dam closed up. Then the rain returned early last week. On Wednesday some of us recorded 2.4″ but it was mostly to the east and south of the lake.

When this amount of rain is widespread, the lake level can rise a foot or two in a couple of days. Fearing the worst, part of the dam was opened Wednesday night and by Thursday morning the level was up only 2.4″ so the flow rate was cut back Thursday afternoon.

I was at the dam yesterday. The top board is out on the 7 north side gates but in on the remaining 5. Only a few inches of water is going over the stop logs in the 7 gates. One adjustable gate on the south side is open. Per the State web site report, lake level is holding at or just below the summer plan of 407.25. My marker stone in North Broad Bay agrees with this report.

Yesterday I had a response from Dan Mattaini of the State Dam Bureau. He is the person who gives the order to open or close the dam. (I don’t think he controls the rain events.)

There is much local talk about “when the lake level is taken down we can go out and investigate the 410′ high water regulation and look for the high water bathtub ring.” I was concerned that the lake level would be taken down earlier than the Columbus Day start date.

Dan responded to this concern: “The draw down this year will be on the same schedule as past years, beginning on or soon after Columbus Day. There will be no influence on operations of the dam due to questions about the 410 issue. After that date progressively all the gates will be opened and all the stoplogs removed before winter and the spring runoff.”

Predictions are for a couple more hot days and no rain. Everyone will be watching the hurricane that could give us some heavy rain by Saturday. I will put out an early September report if anything interesting happens.